KD had a helluva summer. He should have a helluva NBA season, too. (Flickr/GAMEFACE-PHOTOS)

Nuclear winters, like Kris and Kim, are so yesterday.

If you’re a fellow NBA junkie, the past several days have been filled with suspicious joy — a happiness imbued with a faint fear that this delicate dream of a 2011-12 NBA season could collapse at any given moment. But as we read news outlets churn out rumors about Dwight Howard, Chris Paul and Rajon Rondo as if they had them stored up for a time such as this, it becomes easier to let down your guard and embrace the season to be.

As a fantasy basketball blogger, I’ll admit that the coming season fills me with 99 percent cheer and 1 percent fear — cheer because I get to participate in and write about the game I love again; and fear because of the rust I’ll have to work off while knowing the window for educated preseason analysis will only be open sometime after Dec. 9 and before Dec. 25.

So, it’s with a curious mix of joy, fear and disbelief that I present to you my updated rankings of the top 150 fantasy basketball players for the 2011-12 NBA season.

In "2011-12" we might witness fantasy basketball in its truest form.

The NBA lockout has been about as horrifying as sitting in between two of your friends who spontaneously decide to make out with each other in public. Of course, if those two friends were the NBA Players Association and the NBA owners, maybe it wouldn’t be so bad.

Before you start thinking too much about James Dolan getting intimate with Derek Fisher, let’s move on to the point of this post.

Fantasy basketball is, thankfully, immune to such silly things as lockouts. But what the NBA lockout does mean is that any projections made for what we call “2011-12″ are made for a season that might not happen. In other words, we’re making forecasts about fantasy basketball for a season that might not even exist — a season that may be, in fact, a fantasy.

A fantasy within a fantasy — fantasy basketball in the truest sense.

Without further ado, here are my early rankings for the top 150 fantasy basketball players in “2011-12.”

Below is a preview of the top 50 players (assuming H2H, nine categories). For the full list, go here. The link to the rankings is available at the top of this website, and the rankings will, of course, be updated every now and then.

How 'bout that Chandler. (NBA.com)

You’re finally getting used to typing “2011,” trade rumors are alive and all your fantasy teams are foundering (or, maybe that’s just me) — yep, it’s about the midpoint of the NBA regular season. This is a great opportunity to take a look back and forward, all in one post.

Players will be grouped by position and ranked based on their approximate Yahoo! average-based rankings so far this season. The first letter grade after each player’s name will be based on their performance thus far, in addition to how they’ve fallen short of, met or exceeded expectations; and the second grade will be based on their projected value for the second half of the season.

The full post is over at DimeMag.com, but below is an abridged version of the Fantasy Basketball 2010-11 Midseason Report Card:

Point guards:
Chris Paul: A/A-
Deron Williams: A/A
Monta Ellis: A/A-
Raymond Felton: A/A-
Russell Westbrook: A/A
Derrick Rose: A/A-
Steve Nash: B+/B+
Rajon Rondo: B+/B+
Chauncey Billups: B/B-
Jason Kidd: B-/B-

Shooting guards:
Manu Ginobili: A/B+
Stephen Curry: B+/A-
Ray Allen: A/B+
Dwyane Wade: B/B+
Eric Gordon: A/A
Kevin Martin: A/B+
Kobe Bryant: C+/B
Jason Richardson: A-/A-
Arron Afflalo: A/A-
Landry Fields: A/B+

Small forwards:
Kevin Durant: A-/A
Rudy Gay: A+/A-
Paul Pierce: A/B+
LeBron James: B/A-
Wilson Chandler: A+/B+
Dorell Wright: A+/A-
Danny Granger: C+/B-
Danilo Gallinari: B+/A-
Andrei Kirilenko: A-/B-
Carmelo Anthony: C-/B+

Power forwards:
Dirk Nowitzki: A-/A
Pau Gasol: A/A-
Kevin Love: A+/A
Amar’e Stoudemire: A/A-
Kevin Garnett: A/B+
Paul Millsap: A-/A-
Josh Smith: B+/B+
Elton Brand: A/B+
LaMarcus Aldridge: A/A
Tim Duncan: A-/B

Centers:
Al Horford: A/A-
Joakim Noah: A-/B+
Al Jefferson: B+/B+
Nene: A-/A-
Marcus Camby: A-/D

Head on over to DimeMag.com to read the complete report card, plus some additional goodies.

That haircut sure does help. (AP Photo/Claudio Cruz)

The title of this post is an exaggeration, of course — but only by a hair from Manu’s thinning dome.

Just kidding.

Remember that fantasy basketball preview in Dime Magazine I mentioned last week? Well, for those of you bums who either don’t subscribe to that glorious print publication or were too penurious to go out and pick up a copy of the issue, good news: it’s being posted onto DimeMag.com, piece by  piece.

• Top 101 Fantasy Basketball Players in 2010-11 (with commentary for the top 10)
• Top 10 NBA Sleepers in 2010-11
• How to Build the Perfect Fantasy Basketball Team
• The 24 Best Fantasy Basketball Category Specialists

Keep checking DimeMag.com for the rest of it.

Please bear in mind that all this was originally written back in early September. While I updated some stuff for the Web editions, I tried to leave as much of it alone as possible.

Feel free to love or hate on it to your heart’s content in the comments section below.

Curry will get a lot of applause from fantasy owners this season, but does he make sense at 7.9? (NBA.com)

This week’s Fantasy Basketball Roundtable is hosted over at Give Me The Rock. The topic is: What do you think of Stephen Curry going at an average of 7.9 in Yahoo drafts? That’s above Danny Granger, Deron Williams, Dwight Howard, Pau Gasol, Amar’e Stoudemire and David Lee. What do you think of Curry’s prospects compared to those other potential first-round picks?

Here’s my take:

You’ve got to figure that a major factor that’s built into that 7.9 number is the fact that a good number of casual fantasy basketball owners probably don’t know about coach Don Nelson’s departure or what that really means for Curry’s fantasy production. That said, 7.9 is a bit bullish for Curry, mostly because of the uncertainty that coach Keith Smart brings to that team. I don’t doubt that the Warriors will continue to be a prolific team, but will they repeat as the No. 2 scoring team in the league? Maybe not.

However, with so many offensive weapons now gone from Oakland and with Jeremy Lin currently the only backup point guard on that squad, it’s clear that Curry will have no problem matching or even exceeding the 36:12 he played last season and expanding his prominent role in that team’s offense. Also, don’t underestimate the impact of: 1) Monta Ellis’ apparent peace with his situation on the Warriors, 2) coach Smart’s goal of cutting down Ellis’ minutes this season and 3) the pressure taken off the backcourt with David Lee in the frontcourt.

All that said, I don’t have a problem taking Curry over Granger, Howard, Stoudemire and Lee. But I can’t justify taking him over Williams and Gasol. Curry at the end of the first round makes sense to me.

An assist is an assist, no matter how awkward it looks. Right, Kobe? (AP)

Here’s a quick roundup of just a small sampling of fantasy basketball resources available to use before, during and after your drafts:

• Give Me The Rock has you covered for all your ranking, scheduling and team-preview needs with its 2010 Basketball Draft Guide. Oh, and give the boys a bone. Pimpin’ (fantasy basketball goods) ain’t easy.
• Basketball Monster is just what it sounds like — in a good way. Even without a membership, get valuable access to player rankings, team analysis, trade analysis and schedules, among other things. I love that site, and not just because it uses colors, too.
• SleeperBot offers a clean, straightforward and nifty Tiersheet application to help you with your drafts. It breaks players down by position and tiers, and comes equipped with drag-and-drop functionality for individual players and for entire tiers. You can double-click to highlight players’ names and e-mail yourself a snapshot of your Tiersheet. Check it out for H2H and roto formats.
• If you’re looking for authoritative lists of average draft positions, look no further than busersports.com.
• Having a hard time thinking of names for your fantasy basketball teams? FantasyTeamNames.net can help.

If Scalabrine can win a championship, why can't you?

October is here and with training camp in full swing, it’s finally time to unveil my completely subjective list of the top 300 fantasy basketball players for 2010-11.

The link to the page of rankings will always be found at the top of this site.

The rankings are based on nine categories, and a link to the Google Spreadsheet version of the list is available. You can download it in several formats (PDF, HTML, CSV, etc.), and if you’d like to save your own editable copy of the online spreadsheet, just click on “File” then “Make a copy.” This will allow you to sort columns and edit cells to your heart’s content.

That’s pretty much it.

If you want other perspectives, I recommend taking a gander at the rankings offered by Give Me The Rock, busersports.com, MFBarkley and ESPN.com.

Yep, I got a problem with ranking Dwight in the first round -- even in a head-to-head league. (DIBYANGSHU SARKAR/AFP/Getty Images)

Dwight Howard is many things, including: jacked beyond decency, the NBA’s best center and one of the most divisive fantasy basketball players alive today.

First off, let’s be clear that in roto leagues drafting Howard in the first round can only be seen as a masochistic self-challenge and ultimate test of your fantasy skills — a test which will almost always lead to a non-first-place finish. In head-to-head leagues, however, Howard is seen by the vast majority of experts and fantasy basketball owners as a top-12 fantasy asset. This assertion is, of course, always followed up by a warning that starts with something like, “…so long as you…” followed by a brief mention of punting categories and building around his strengths.

Let the record show that I fully agree with the idea that “Foul on You” is worth a pick in the first round, so long as you are disciplined enough to follow up by constructing the right roster with your remaining picks.

But that doesn’t change the fact that I don’t like placing Howard in the first round of my fantasy rankings — even for head-to-head formats.

Here is my reasoning:

• A list of rankings to serve all skill levels: This point is my main reason for being so averse to placing Howard in the first round of my fantasy basketball rankings, even for head-to-head formats. Any time you have to follow up your explanation of ranking a player in the first round with “…so long as you…” a red flag should be flapping all up in your lovely mug in the same way it should when a friend tells you they know a girl who’d be perfect for you, “so long as you’re OK with the fact that she has no thumbs.” While fantasy basketball veterans should have no problems reading H2H rankings that have Howard in the top 12, those who are either new to the game or still trying to learn the ropes might read them and be led into a trap, especially if a caveat isn’t included. In order to accommodate fantasy basketball owners in all categories of 1337ness, from rookies to 20-year vets, I choose to place Howard somewhere between where experienced owners might take him (mid- to late-first round) and where rookies should probably be advised to take him (mid- to late-second round). If that means I’m indirectly advising less-experienced owners to miss out on Howard, so be it. He’s a potent fantasy weapon, but one that could easily backfire for someone who won’t know how to use him. The following points are reasons why the big man in Orlando is a risky option for your team’s first pick, especially if you’re not too well acquainted with the game.

• Objects in mirror are more difficult than they appear: While a word of caution and an explanation regarding Howard’s fantasy value is fine and dandy, it’s usually not as simple as it sounds. Let’s say you draft the big fella in the first round and commit to punting FT%. This would mean that in the second round, your ideal picks would be either Josh Smith (60.6 percent in the past two seasons) or Rajon Rondo (63 percent in his four-year career). But what if those two dudes are taken before you can get them? What if players that would fit into your punting strategy continue to be taken throughout most of the draft, forcing you to either compromise your plan, reach a bit too often for players who should be taken a round or two later, or just completely lose your cool and draft a mediocre team? It can happen. Even if you’re aiming to draft Howard in the first round and endeavor to actually target players with great free-throw percentages to make up for his 59 percent from the line on 10+ attempts per game, the same risk of unfortunate drafting scenarios can easily take place. Punting is a great tactic for Howard owners in a vacuum, but in reality there’s a lot of room for error. (This isn’t even to mention how difficult it could be to transition from drafting with a roto or traditional H2H mindset, which are oftentimes the same for many owners, to a punting/compensating strategy.)

• The ceiling is sagging: Let’s be brutally honest here: despite the upbeat mentions of how much he has worked on his shooting and offensive arsenal during each offseason, we never see any of that come to fruition once the season starts. Let’s take a look at Howard’s stats for the past three seasons:

Do you see a trend (besides the strange streak of XX:42 in playing time)? No matter how insignificant you might think it seems, it’s there. Howard has seen his points, rebounds and minutes decline, while his personal fouls have risen. This isn’t to say that I think the trend will continue in this exact fashion this season, but I do see a troubling trend here, and it’s mostly rooted in his penchant for fouling and his consequential decline in playing time. With the NBA’s new (and more sensitive) guidelines regarding technical fouls, there’s even less to like for Howard’s on-court time heading into this season. (He and Rasheed Wallace led the league with 17 technical fouls each last season.) His stats seem set in stone. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, since he’s putting up some gaudy numbers, but it doesn’t bode well for his potential to improve on any particular statistical category. Upside is an intangible aspect of players’ values on draft day, and Howard has next to none of it.

• They’re gunning for him: Why do you think the Miami Heat has seven players who can play center on their roster? Part of the reason is to frustrate, foul and defeat Howard, who will face the South Beach triumvirate and their stable of bigs four times this regular season. While that’s only four games in an 82-game schedule, we’ve all seen how teams are doing a better job of frustrating the easy-to-fluster Howard on a nightly basis. The new guidelines for technicals don’t help here either.

• Overrated strengths, underrated weakness: When discussing Howard’s fantasy value, everyone will concede that he’s miserable at the free-throw line, but point to the notion that he’s gold from the field. What some owners fail to realize is that Howard’s high FG% doesn’t help as much as it would appear to. That’s because he’s typically taking a measly 10-11 shots per game. This means that a player like David Lee, who shot 54.5 percent from the field and made 8.5 shots on 15.5 attempts per game last season, can be seen as more helpful for your fantasy team’s FG% than Howard’s 61.2 percent from the field with 6.2 shots made on 10.2 attempts per game. This further highlights why Howard is so detrimental to your team’s FT% (and why a successful attempt at punting/compensating is even more necessary), and also why his “strong” FG% may not actually be that helpful, especially if you have a neutralizer like Brandon Jennings (37 percent from the field, 5.5 FGM on 14.8 FTA last season) on the same team. Also, let’s not forget that rebounds are the second most common stat in the game, which means his strength in that category might not “lock it up” nearly as well as Howard’s blocks do for that exponentially scarcer category.

• Fewer outs: Aside from shooting percentages and turnovers, most first- and second-round players pretty much help you in three, four or five categories. Howard is essentially limited to two: blocks and rebounds. So it doesn’t help that when he has a bad game, that’s pretty much it. Howard won’t gut out a bad night by finding other ways to contribute like other top-tier players can by, for example, handing out more assists or heading to the line more often on a bad shooting night. Add to this the fact that foul trouble particularly affects the steals and blocks categories, and you’re looking at limited lines from Howard when he’s having a bad night (i.e., in foul trouble). Last season, Howard racked up four or more fouls in 45 games (55 percent of the 82 he played). In those games, he averaged 16.2 points, 12.2 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 0.8 steals, 2.4 blocks and 3.4 turnovers. He racked up five or six fouls in 19 games (23 percent of the 82 he played). In those games, he averaged 14.7 points, 10.7 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 0.6 steals, 2.1 blocks and 3.3 turnovers. Not too shabby, but not the kind of rigidly weighed-down numbers you’d like to see so often from a first-round pick.

• Bad news comes in threes, or fours, or fives, or…: It wouldn’t be so bad if Howard’s foul troubles popped up once every several games. But the bad news is that foul trouble comes in streaks for him, which is particularly harsh for weekly formats. Last season, Howard was tagged with four or more fouls in at least two games in a row nine times. (The precise streaks in chronological order were: four, five, seven, five, four, two, two, two, two.) Given the foul-troubled stats in the previous point, it’s clear that there were a handful of weeks where the big man was more human than superman for his fantasy owners in 2009-10.

• I’ve seen too many casualties: During the past several seasons, I’ve seen many fantasy owners take Howard in the first round of head-to-head format drafts. How many ended up winning the championship in those leagues? Zero. In fact, I’ve seen only one owner win a league after drafting Howard at all. Yes, I haven’t played in enough leagues to make this statistic scientifically significant, but it does seem to lend at least the tiniest bit of weight to my preference to leave Howard out of my first-round rankings.

• I have a headache: Punting or compensating FT% with Howard leading your fantasy squad can be a headache. It requires discipline, attention and some fortunate draft picks to work. It’s not too absurd to argue that it’s all too much toil for a player with limited fantasy versatility. Going with another better-rounded player in the first round gives you the freedom of choice until the latter rounds of the draft, when subtle weaknesses might rear their heads. For some fantasy owners, avoiding Howard and opening up their options is the path to a more enjoyable fantasy draft. For others who want to avoid the paradox of choice, taking Howard in the first round and limiting their options will be the more challenging-in-a-rewarding-way undertaking. While taking him as your first pick might be the foundation of a smartly built fantasy juggernaut, I adhere to the notion that avoiding Howard in the first round offers most fantasy owners more avenues to fantasy championships.

Here’s a preview:

1. Brook Lopez
2. Dwight Howard
3. Al Horford
4. Al Jefferson
5. Nene
6. Andrea Bargnani
7. Marcus Camby
8. Marc Gasol
9. Joakim Noah
10. Chris Kaman

Feel free to comment here or there about the list.